Why Nottingham Forest Face Relegation Threat with Four-Point Deduction

Samwel Ogor
By Samwel Ogor EPL 4 Min Read
LONDON, ENGLAND - MAY 13: Taiwo Awoniyi of Nottingham Forest celebrates after scoring the team's first goal during the Premier League match between Chelsea FC and Nottingham Forest at Stamford Bridge on May 13, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)

Nottingham Forest’s dream return to the Premier League has hit a major snag. The club has been docked four points for breaching the league’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR), sending them tumbling into the relegation zone with nine crucial games remaining. While the deduction itself is a significant blow, questions linger: why four points and not the standard six-point penalty?

The PSR regulations aim to prevent excessive financial spending by newly promoted clubs. The rules allow for a maximum loss of £105 million over a rolling three-year period, with adjustments for certain factors like player sales and stadium developments. According to the Premier League, Nottingham Forest admitted exceeding this limit by £34.5 million.

Traditionally, breaches of this nature result in a six-point deduction. However, the independent commission tasked with judging Forest’s case determined a four-point penalty was more appropriate. Here’s a breakdown of the possible reasons:

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  • Nature of the Breach: Not all financial breaches are created equal. While exceeding the loss limit is a violation, the severity can vary. Perhaps Forest’s transgression was deemed less egregious compared to past cases that received a six-point penalty.
  • Mitigating Factors: The commission might have considered mitigating factors presented by Forest. This could include the club demonstrating efforts to control spending or a clear plan to address the financial irregularities.
  • First Offense: If this was Nottingham Forest’s first offense regarding the PSR, the commission might have opted for a lighter penalty compared to repeat offenders.

The exact reasoning behind the four-point deduction remains undisclosed by the Premier League, keeping the specifics shrouded in some secrecy. This lack of transparency can be frustrating for fans seeking a clear understanding of the decision-making process.

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However, some key differences between Forest’s case and previous situations involving Manchester City and Chelsea’s breaches of Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations at the European level might shed some light. FFP rules are similar to the PSR but govern spending across UEFA competitions.

The Manchester City and Chelsea cases involved allegations of inflated sponsorship deals and disguised ownership structures. These complex schemes aimed at circumventing spending restrictions differ from Forest’s reported breach, which might have been a simpler case of exceeding the allowed loss limit.

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The four-point penalty still leaves Nottingham Forest in a precarious position. The club contests the decision and maintains they complied with the regulations. Forest has indicated a possible appeal, though the success of such an action remains uncertain.

Regardless of the outcome of a potential appeal, the immediate concern for Forest is securing Premier League survival. With nine matches left, every point counts. The relegation battle has intensified, with Forest now needing a strong finish to avoid dropping back to the Championship.

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Samwel Ogor is a Nairobi photographer with a passion for telling visual stories offering services in Kenya, Africa and beyond.
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